Decision Analysis
Some of the most useful client engagements in a decision consulting practice are those that make clients aware of the research done over the past 50 years that greatly improves the quality of a person’s or an organization’s decision making.
Decision-aiding structure is particularly valuable during times of significant change when using tried-and-true approaches or relying on past trends are no longer appropriate. Much of our consulting over the past three years has been devoted to understanding and managing risks and assets in the midst of change, uncertainty, and moving value targets.
The seminars and training sessions shown here are seminars that have been given to a wide range of audiences in different countries over the past couple of decades. During that time, new research in the field has been incorporated. Descriptions of current organizational risks and risk management challenges showing up in our consulting practice is integrated into the seminars.
A note on seminar tailoring: Clients can propose variations or combinations of the seminar topics and / or timing shown here. Clients can request tailoring of seminars to focus on particular risks or decision issues facing their unit or organization. Seminars still work well with adjusted timing; for example, the three-day seminars can be spread over a week to free up selected mornings or afternoons for other organization activities. The use of software can be increased or eliminated altogether in these seminars.
Course Outline: Overview of Decision Analysis
Day 1 - Morning
Basic structure of a decision
What is desired
What can be done
What is known
Developing a model of a decision
Purpose of a decision model
Focus on value
Building a model
Model structure
Quantifying value
Developing creative alternatives
Characterizing uncertainty
Option-type valuation: exploiting uncertainty
Group Lunch
Day 1 - Afternoon
More elaborate decision modeling
Computer-intensive predictive analytics
Risks and rewards of “big data”
Incorporating machine learning usefully
Portfolios and interdependent alternatives
Software support
The critical role of analytics support
Sensitivity analysis
What-if analysis
Practice
Micro-case group analysis
presentations
Course Outline: Taking Risk & Making Decisions
Day 1 - Decisions & Change
Morning
A Hard Decision
Micro-cases
What to do with radioactive waste (client can provide alternative problem if desired)
What about GMOs
Quality decisions
Overview
Impediments
Characteristics
Process
Group Lunch
Afternoon
Micro-case
Objectives
Alternatives
Group collaborations
Micro-case analysis
Discussions and challenges
Multi-group and groups
Day 2 - Appraisal & Analysis
Morning
Appraisal: Decision structure
Logic
Information
Consequences
Identifying objectives
Why is the status quo unsatisfactory
What is desired
Tangibles and intangibles
Operating objectives and value structure
Dealing with uncertainty
It’s not all bad
Point of view
Characteristics and characterizing
Exploiting uncertainty
Software
Group Lunch
Afternoon
Dealing with information
It’s not always quantitative
It’s not always in a database
‘Intangibles’
Spreadsheets
Day 3 - Analysis & Action
Morning
Analyzing and evaluation decisions
Strategies
Alternatives
Information
Evaluation
Decision analysis
What does a “good decision” look like
Group Working Lunch
Afternoon
Action: Decisions are implementations
Communication
Integration
Cooperation & buy-in
Sustaining change
Group presentations