Decision Analysis

Some of the most useful client engagements in a decision consulting practice are those that make clients aware of the research done over the past 50 years that greatly improves the quality of a person’s or an organization’s decision making.

Decision-aiding structure is particularly valuable during times of significant change when using tried-and-true approaches or relying on past trends are no longer appropriate.  Much of our consulting over the past three years has been devoted to understanding and managing risks and assets in the midst of change, uncertainty, and moving value targets.

The seminars and training sessions shown here are seminars that have been given to a wide range of audiences in different countries over the past couple of decades.  During that time, new research in the field has been incorporated. Descriptions of current organizational risks and risk management challenges showing up in our consulting practice is integrated into the seminars.

A note on seminar tailoring:  Clients can propose variations or combinations of the seminar topics and / or timing shown here.  Clients can request tailoring of seminars to focus on particular risks or decision issues facing their unit or organization.  Seminars still work well with adjusted timing; for example, the three-day seminars can be spread over a week to free up selected mornings or afternoons for other organization activities.  The use of software can be increased or eliminated altogether in these seminars. 


Course Outline: Overview of Decision Analysis

Day 1 - Morning

Basic structure of a decision

What is desired

What can be done

What is known

 

Developing a model of a decision

Purpose of a decision model

Focus on value

Building a model

 

Model structure

Quantifying value

Developing creative alternatives

Characterizing uncertainty

Option-type valuation:  exploiting uncertainty

Group Lunch

Day 1 - Afternoon

More elaborate decision modeling

Computer-intensive predictive analytics

Risks and rewards of “big data”

Incorporating machine learning usefully

Portfolios and interdependent alternatives

 

Software support

The critical role of analytics support

Sensitivity analysis

What-if analysis

 

Practice

Micro-case group analysis

presentations


Course Outline: Taking Risk & Making Decisions

Day 1 - Decisions & Change

Morning

A Hard Decision

  • Micro-cases

  • What to do with radioactive waste (client can provide alternative problem if desired)

  • What about GMOs

Quality decisions

  • Overview

  • Impediments

  • Characteristics

  • Process

Group Lunch

Afternoon

Micro-case

  • Objectives

  • Alternatives

 

Group collaborations

  • Micro-case analysis

  • Discussions and challenges

  • Multi-group and groups

Day 2 - Appraisal & Analysis

Morning

Appraisal:  Decision structure

  • Logic

  • Information

  • Consequences

 

Identifying objectives

  • Why is the status quo unsatisfactory

  • What is desired

  • Tangibles and intangibles

  • Operating objectives and value structure

 

Dealing with uncertainty

  • It’s not all bad

  • Point of view

  • Characteristics and characterizing

  • Exploiting uncertainty

  • Software

Group Lunch

Afternoon

Dealing with information

  • It’s not always quantitative

  • It’s not always in a database

  • ‘Intangibles’

  • Spreadsheets

Day 3 - Analysis & Action

Morning

Analyzing and evaluation decisions

  • Strategies

  • Alternatives

  • Information

  • Evaluation

 

Decision analysis

  • What does a “good decision” look like

Group Working Lunch

Afternoon

Action:  Decisions are implementations

  • Communication

  • Integration

  • Cooperation & buy-in

  • Sustaining change

 

Group presentations